2023 hog population little changed YOY
The U.S. hog and pig herd as of Sep. 1 numbered 74.3 million head compared to 74.1 million last September....
Cold storage report shows significant drop in butter stocks
The latest USDA Cold Storage report showed that butter stocks declined 13 percent from the previous month to the end...
Dairy herd continues its trend lower
The national herd lost another 10,000 head according to the September USDA milk production report, which provides the latest statistics...
World food price in August the lowest since February 2021
FAO’s Food Price Index (FPI) fell 2.1 percent in August to 116.7 (adjusted for inflation), down 13.3 percent YOY and...
Consumer Price Index for foods up 7.1% YOY
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for food rose 0.3 percent in July and was reported up 4.9 percent YOY, per...
Are dairy markets trading on emotion rather than facts?
Last week, we reported on the dismal results of Fonterra’s most recent Global Dairy Trade auction as well as on...
Global dairy prices collapse, forestalling domestic price recovery
Although the North American flush is over and both milk productivity and the herd are declining across the United States,...
June CPI up 0.1% for all food, down 0.1% for food at home
ERS estimated the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all food up about 0.1 percent in June, nearly flat on a...
Nonfat dry milk inventories continue to trend lower
The August dry products report showed the fourth consecutive decline in human nonfat dry milk inventories, falling another 4 million...
Vegetable oils push Food Price Index higher in July
FAO reported a 1.3 percent (1.5 index points) increase in its Food Price Index (FPI) from June to July. Adjusted...
Heat & culling pose double whammy to June milk output
On Jul. 20, USDA released its July milk production report, summarizing dairy statistics through the end of June or first...
Nonfat dry milk inventories resilient, but facing challenges in latter half of 2023
So far, 2023 has been marked by consistently solid inventories of most dairy products and general softening in prices. The...
World Food Price Index down 22% YOY
FAO reported its Food Price Index fell 1.4 percent in June (adjusted for inflation), putting the index down 22.3 percent...
Global dairy prices continue to slide lower
As interest rates continue to rise across mainland Europe, and the Federal Reserve signals that further tightening is likely in...
Jun. 1 hog & pig count steady YOY
Today, USDA reported there were almost 72.4 million head of hogs and pigs in the U.S. as of Jun. 1...
Milk spring weather prolongs dairy flush in 2023
This week’s USDA milk production report showed continued strong output per cow and no change to the underlying herd. At...
2023 spring dairy flush impacted by explosion
The peak cycle of milk production normally spans the first half of the year. It advances in the first quarter,...
Food Price Index up 0.6% in April, first rise in 13 months
Adjusted for inflation, FAO’s Food Price Index (FPI) for April rose 0.6 percent from March—the first monthly increase in 13...
Nonfat dry milk stocks rise, butter holds
With the U.S. now at peak flush, dairy operations are in full swing as processing plants cope with the abundant...
Biosecurity measures help combat spread of avian flu in U.S.
Highly pathogenic avian influenza returned to the U.S. in January 2022: H1N5, a particularly contagious (among birds) form of the...
Dairy turns bearish as peak flush nears
As spring brings warmer weather and grass starts growing, dairy yield and production goes into high gear across the country....
U.S. food inflation 0.4% in February
USDA reported the February food Consumer Price Index (CPI) up 0.4 percent from January and up 9.5 percent YOY. The...
Surprise bump in herd comes in February
Last week’s USDA milk production report showed that the national herd grew by 12,000 heifers last month to its highest...
FAO Food Price Index down for 9.7% YOY in February
FAO’s world Food Price Index, adjusted for inflation, fell 0.6 percent in February and was down 9.7 percent YOY; this...
Dairy product stocks rise as spring flush begins
Both nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and AA butter stocks rose last month as winter draws to a close and the...
FDA recommends nutrient labelling for plant-based milk alternatives
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has recently announced draft recommendations for the naming and labeling of plant-based milk alternatives....
Food inflation forecast at 7.9% in 2023
ERS reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all food rose 0.7 in January from December on price gains...
Small bump in dairy herd at start of 2023
After 2022 ended on two months of decline, the market was prepared for another modest round of culling and further...
Updated U.S. long-term agricultural projections
USDA has released its agricultural projections to 2032! These baseline projections provide insight into the landscape of agricultural commodities and...
USDA 2023 dairy forecast
USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) issued its latest 2023 outlook for livestock, poultry, and dairy this past week. In the...
FAO Food Price Index down again in January
FAO Food Price Index (FPI) fell for the tenth-straight month in January as each subindex clocked a monthly drop from...
North Island flooding threatens New Zealand’s dairy industry
Heavy rains and flash floods have led to mudslides, the evacuation of thousands across New Zealand’s North Island, and closure...
Increase in price of eggs due to shortage in supply
Eggs can be an important source of vitamins, minerals, iron, and carotenoids, being a great food that provides the human...
Cow numbers down in January report
Reports in January presented milking herd numbers at the close of 2022. Although milk yield showed a slight improvement with...
Food Price Index down to 15-month low
Adjusted for inflation, FAO’s Food Price Index (FPI) fell nearly 2 percent in December, reaching its lowest level since September...
November nonfat dry milk stocks up 59 million pounds YOY
As 2022 ended, reported stocks of various dairy products were starting to climb, setting the stage for an oversupplied market...
ERS sees 2023 food prices up 4% from last year
The Food Price Index (FPI), part of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose just 0.2 percent in November, slower growth...
Smallest hog herd since 2016
USDA’s latest hog and pig inventory put the U.S. herd at 73.1 million head as of Dec. 1, down 2...
Domestic cattle herd grows as demand slows
USDA’s December milk production for the week leading into Christmas showed a 1,000-head revision higher in the previous herd number...
Domestic food CPI reported up 0.7% in October, up 11% YOY
In its October Consumer Price Index (CPI) reporting, ERS calculated that the price to consumers for all food rose 0.7...
FAO Food Price Index down 1.4% YOY
All but two components of FAO’s Food Price Index (FPI) fell in November, allowing the overall index to slip slightly...
Stocks of NFDM weigh on futures
Manufacturer stocks of human-grade, low-heat nonfat dry milk (NFDM) stand at 247 million lbs, their highest level since 2018. Earlier...
National herd climbs while dairy stocks in cold storage fall
The shortened Thanksgiving holiday week brought mostly good news for buyers of dairy products. USDA’s November milk production report showed...
Cost of Thanksgiving meal rises again in 2022
The cost of ingredients for a ten-person Thanksgiving meal hit a new record this year, as estimated through the American...
FAO Food Price Index down for seventh straight month
Adjusted for inflation, FAO’s October Food Price Index (FPI) fell by 0.1 percent from August, the sixth straight monthly decline....
Butter prices finally ease back from unsustainable heights
Summer brought searing temperatures across the U.S. as well as record-high butter prices north of $3.00 per lb. Despite strong...
Food prices up 11% YOY in September
September’s U.S. Food Price Index rose 0.7 percent from August, with the highest growth again seen for prices of food...
World Food Price Index down for sixth straight month
Adjusted for inflation, FAO’s Food Price Index (FPI) fell 1 percent in September, the sixth straight down month. Year on...
Latest milk production report sparks controversy over herd
2022 has been marked by repeated USDA revisions by of milking cow numbers. Around midyear, we saw a dramatic upward...
Insights from the front lines
Steve Vuilleumier: Executive Vice President Corn and soybeans are expected to be 12 percent and 8 percent harvested, respectively. Hurricane...
Food inflation continues with CPI up 0.8% in August
USDA reported food inflation of 0.8 percent in August, putting prices last month up 11.4 percent YOY. Year to date,...
Fueled by unsustainable high dairy product prices, herd continues to grow
Monday’s USDA milk production reports for August showed an abundance of milk and dairy cows for the market to absorb....
July nonfat dry milk stocks highest in 13 years
The latest dairy products report showed a continued build in many dairy product categories. Cheese was the obvious winner, with...
FAO Food Price Index falls to seven-month low
Adjusted for inflation, FAO’s Food Price Index (FPI) fell 1.9 percent from July to a seven-month low but was still...
Food CPI up 10.9% YOY
Data reported by BLS shows that food inflation was 1.1 percent in July, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for...
Dairy prices finally acting rationally?
After a solid rally and underreporting of herd statistics in the first half of the year, corrections in USDA cow...
Food Price Index down for fourth straight month in July
FAO’s Food Price Index (FPI) fell for a fourth straight month in July, down by nearly 9 percent from June,...
USDA makes big dairy adjustment, erasing 25% of estimated herd deficit
Although USDA typically tweaks the previous month’s dairy herd statistics, the most recent milk production figures released in July saw...
Food Consumer Price Index up 10% YOY in June, up 7% YTD
The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June showed that pricing for all food was up 1.0 percent from...
International dairy prices do about-face, now down year on year
After showing surprising strength and resilience during Q1 2022, global dairy prices met resistance and have lost all YTD gains,...
USDA Milk Production report holds few surprises
The June milk production report showed a slowdown in herd expansion occurred during Q2 2022. Since the end of Q1,...
Jun. 1 hog & pig herd down 1% YOY
The U.S. hog and pig population numbered 72.5 million head as of Jun. 1, down slightly from Mar. 1’s count...
At-home consumer food prices rose 1.3% in May, up 11.9% YOY
ERS published data on Consumer Price Indexes (CPI) for food this Friday, unsurprisingly showing higher prices in May across all...
U.S. April food prices up 1% from March, up 9% YOY
ERS estimates inflation for selected food price indexes in the U.S. was 1.0 percent in April vs. March, with inflation...
FAO Food Price Index down in May for second straight month
FAO’s Food Price Index (FPI) was reported down over half a percent in May, adjusted for inflation, the second straight...
Update on world food trade policies & export bans
Following production and shipment exports stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic, some countries adopted restrictions or additional duties on exports of...
Herd number reported unchanged—sort of—in May milk report
Somewhat surprisingly, the USDA May milk production report showed the herd was little changed from the prior month. In fact,...
Surging greenback could help press pause on dollar-denominated commodities
Interest rates were increased by 50 basis points in an early-May Fed meeting, and there was strong insinuation the move...
Q1 domestic food prices up 8.8% YOY, world food price roundup
ERS estimates that March food prices were up 1.0 percent from February, led by appreciation for meat, eggs, fats and...
Slight break in world food prices in April
In April, FAO’s Food Price Index (FPI) fell slightly from March, possibly a positive sign after strong food price inflation...
Fresh record high for FAO Food Price Index in March
FAO reported its Food Price Index (FPI) at a new record in March 2022, about 17 percent above its previous...
Q1 cattle on feed up 1% YOY
Cattle (at feedlots) on feed as of Mar. 1 totaled 12.2 million head, up more than 160,000 head from March...
Food Price Index reached fresh high in February
FAO’s Food Price Index (FPI) rose again in February, growing 3.9 percent from January to reach a new record high...
Butter stocks rise, herd does not….
In a proverbial good news/bad news sense, the dairy market received updates from USDA on both stocks of dairy products...
Dairy market jittery ahead of key USDA monthly reports
Valentine’s Day must have fanned the flames of dairy bulls as the Fonterra Global Dairy Trade auction registered its third...
Real Food Price Index down half a percent at start of 2022
Adjusted for inflation, FAO’s Food Price Index (FPI) fell half a percent in January but was still up 6.1 percent...
Are dairy prices reaching a point of exhaustion?
Calendar 2022 began with an aura of fear and panic among buyers trying to navigate the dairy market and rapidly...
Food Price Index fell in December but was up 26% YOY in 2021
In December 2021, FAO’s world Food Price Index (FPI), adjusted for inflation, fell by almost 1 percent from November, ending...
Signs of weakness creeping into dairy market
After prices rallied sharply in November, the dairy market seemed dominated by bullish buyers and tight heifer supply. However, when...
World Food Price Index up 1.2% in November, up 25% year on year
FAO reported November’s world Food Price Index (FPI) up 1.2 percent from October’s FPI. Year to date, the 2021 FPI...
Seasonal changes in cattle on feed & poultry layers
Cattle on feed numbers are increasing seasonally, with 11.90 million head reported as of Nov. 1, up 3 percent from...
Dairy herd & milk yield fall below year-ago levels
Dairy herd & milk yield fall below year-ago levels This week’s USDA milk production report provided more bullish fuel as...
After falling in 2020, the cost of Thanksgiving meal rises in 2021
In its survey of the cost of a Thanksgiving meal, the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) estimated the cost of...
Food Price Index rises for third-straight month in October
Adjusted for inflation, FAO’s Food Price Index (FPI) rose for the third straight month in October, up a respectable 3...
Dairy prices advance as U.S. herd recedes
Key industry reports released this past week provided additional fuel to bulls in dairy, bolstering prices. Domestically, the milk production...
September FAO food price indexes up across the board
Led by cereals, vegetable oils, and dairy, all FAO food price subindexes were up in September. Though gains were modest,...
Culling limits milk supply growth
Four months into this contraction phase for output, the U.S. dairy herd has fallen by nearly 30,000 head, with the...
Sugar index leads gains in August rebound of Food Price Index
Adjusted for inflation, FAO’s Food Price Index (FPI) rebounded strongly in August after slight declines in June and July. These...
Rising container freight rates curdles U.S. milk exports
An increasingly common complaint of shippers lately has been availability and pricing for export containers. Many lanes, in particular those...
Global dairy markets coming back to life for a fall rally?
With prices down some 15 percent in the second quarter and early in the third quarter, global appetite for dairy...
First positive results from Global Dairy Trade auction in months
The Aug. 17 Fonterra Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction showed the first gain in overall product prices since April, albeit...
July milk production up 2% across the U.S. vs. July 2020
July was another solid month of milk production across the U.S. even as the herd was knocked back by 3,000...
World food prices down for second month on cheaper cereals, dairy, oils
After falling 2.6 percent the previous month, FAO’s Food Price Index (FPI) fell again in July, down 1.2 percent from...
Food price inflation may temper earning results
Corporate earnings from multinational food consumer packaged goods (CPG) companies this past week were upbeat, with most results beating or...
U.S. dairy herd plateaus & poised to fall
After steadily rising over the past 12 months, the nationwide herd may have peaked as flush ends. Total herd across...
Finally a break for world food prices?
Adjusted for inflation, FAO’s Food Price Index fell in June by 2.5 percent, ending a 12-month runup for world food...
June sees trio of bearish results for dairy complex
The inevitable flood of milk resulting from both a larger herd and peak milk production of spring flush finally appears...
NFDM futures retreat on heavy milk supply
After peaking in early March, global dairy prices ran into resistance, with sluggish performance over the past two and a...
U.S. now at peak dairy flush & stocks
As we approach Memorial Day weekend, recent reports indicate that dairy herd, stocks of various dairy products, and milk production...
Inflation in commodities heating up
Two releases from the government this past week stoked fears of inflation rising faster than previously forecast, with both CPI...
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